UFC 202 – McGregor vs Diaz 2 – Results

 August 20, 2016 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA

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Nine predictions for this card with a total possible return of just over £900 from £31 staked, but there’s some very speculative picks on there so I wasn’t banking on anything.

Neil Magny vs Lorenz Larkin

Larkin looked absolutely savage, stopping Neil Magny, something Hector Lombard failed to do earlier this year. Watch out Welterweights. That’s a couple of my bets falling at the first hurdle, but it’s a long night.

Randa Markos vs Cortney Casey

After a shaky start, Casey had to fight her way out of a bad position and in the last seconds of the 1st round, found an armbar finish. Good effort.

Artem Lobov vs Chris Avila

Lobov finally adds a UFC win to his record, completely out-performing Avila, and chalks one up in the Dublin vs Stockton battle too. Still a little unconvincing from the Russian Hammer, as Avila offered little offensively and still saw the final bell.

Raquel Pennington vs Elizabeth Phillips

A hard fought victory for Pennington. It wasn’t pretty, but sometimes they just have to be ground out.

Cody Garbrandt vs Takeya Mizugaki

The fight opened up with Joe Rogan rabbiting on about how being such a big favourite in the fight could be a disadvantage to Garbrandt, causing him to take Mizugaki lightly. Cody soon shut that up with an early KO. As expected, with a bit of prompting from Rogan, Garbrandt took the opportunity to promise Dominick Cruz a broken jaw at the earliest opportunity.

Tim Means vs Sabah Homasi

Ah well, I did say the upset bets were just for fun. Means was an entirely different class to Homasi and by half way through the 1st round it was looking a case of not if, but when he’d get the finish.

Hyun Gyu Lim vs Mike Perry

Upset number two does come in, with Mike Perry beating the snot out of Hyun Gyu Lim. Will certainly be interested in his next outing.

Rick Story vs Donald Cerrone

COWBOY!! Story gave a decent account of himself in a 1st round that Cerrone probably won, but round 2 was all Cowboy and he bagged the show reel combination stoppage. I hope UFC give him the 155lbs title match against Alverez he’s asking for. If they do, my money will be straight on him.

Anthony Johnson vs Glover Teixeira

Rumble executed Glover in under a minute. Holy shit, that guy is a killer. It’s a good job he’s such a nice guy, because if he decided to go on a rampage, I’m not sure there’s much we could collectively do to stop him. Get ready DC, Rumble is coming for a second crack at your belt.

McGregor vs Diaz

What an incredible fight?! One and a half rounds in, it was looking like it might be a clinical and dominant win for Conor, but never count Nate Diaz out, who turned it into a war. I had it 10-8, 10-10, 9-10, 10-9, 9-10 so 48-47 overall. Two judges had the same score as me and another gave it a draw. Fantastic scrap, and for gods’ sake Conor, make that the last bout at 170lbs. Back to 145lbs to defend/unify that belt. There are other 155lbs I’d like to see both guys fight before they meet again, but I’m sure we’ll see the rubber match at some point.

So, 6/9 right a very small profit for the card:

Bet 1 – £10 returning £0.00

Neil Magny to beat Lorenz Larkin – lose

Cortney Casey to beat Randa Markos – win

Chris Aliva to beat Artem Lobov – lose

Raquel Pennington to beat Elizabeth Phillips – win

Bet 2 – £10 returning £0.00

Cody Garbrandt to beat Takeya Mizugaki – win

Sabah Homasi to beat Tim Means – lose

Mike Perry to beat Hyun Gyu Lim – win

Bet 3 – £10 returned £43.62

Donald Cerone to beat Rick Story – win

Anthony Johnson to beat Glover Teixeira – win

McGregor to beat Diaz – win

Bet 4 – £1 returning £0.00

Neil Magny to beat Lorenz Larkin – lose

Cortney Casey to beat Randa Markos – win

Chris Aliva to beat Artem Lobov – lose

Raquel Pennington to beat Elizabeth Phillips – win

Cody Garbrandt to beat Takeya Mizugaki – win

Sabah Homasi to beat Tim Means – lose

Mike Perry to beat Hyun Gyu Lim – win

Donald Cerone to beat Rick Story – win

Anthony Johnson to beat Glover Teixeira – win

McGregor to beat Diaz – win

Bet settled

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UFC 202 – Diaz vs McGregor 2 – Preview

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August 20, 2016 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA

Paddy Power offer a wide range of sports betting, including good coverage of MMA events. If you would like to place a bet on MMA or anything else, you would be greatly supporting the site by clicking on the banner above, creating a Paddy Power account and doing it there.

It was UFC 196 – McGregor vs Diaz that started this year’s betting campaign for me. I got more right than wrong on the night, but made no profit as there was a loser in each accumulator. That included the main event where I put my money on Conor. So, let’s have a look at UFC 202 and see where my money’s going.

McGregor vs Diaz

I’m an unapologetic fan of McGregor, both as a fighter and as a personality. I would rather he was defending his Featherweight title, and if he insists on super fights at other weights, I’d prefer him to be looking at Lightweight first. But I had my money on him last time, and I am happy to get it on him again now. Just got to keep it standing.

Anthony Johnson vs Glover Teixeira

With the exception of his failed title attempt against Daniel Cormier last May, Rumble has been a killer since moving up to Light Heavyweight. Glover Teixeira was also looking lethal when he made short work of Rashad Evans in April. That said, a hot Rumble Johnson is a different prospect to a retirement-bound Rashad coming back after a long layoff. Rumble looks favourite and I’m happy to get on him.

Rick Story vs Donald Cerone

Story looked pretty good in his return in May against Tarec Saffiedine after a long break. But I always bet on Cowboy, because the bet is usually live till the final bell. Cerone only has two losses in over three years, both to recently dethroned champ; RDA, and I don’t see Story derailing the current run.

Hyun Gyu Lim vs Mike Perry
Tim Means vs Sabah Homasi

I tend to duck fights where late replacements are involved, especially when they are promotional new comers. However, just for fun, I’m going to take a punt on Perry and Homasi to both cause upsets, just because of the juicy odds. Perry is unbeaten and Homasi has won three times already this year, so it’s not impossible.

Cody Garbrandt vs Takeya Mizugaki

Garbrandt is lining himself up for a crack at Dominick Cruz and an impressive win over Mizugaki surely gets that title shot signed. He looked fantastic when he put Thomas Almeida away in May and this fight feels like an opportunity to get the mic in his hand to call out the champ.

Raquel Pennington vs Elizabeth Phillips

I reluctantly bet against Pennington in April when I thought she would get beaten by Bethe Correia and that proved to be a mistake. I like her to beat Phillips here.

Artem Lobov vs Chris Avila

Conor’s buddy has yet to chalk up a win in the UFC and although Avila is another promotional debutant, this might be another backable newbie. He’s finished his last three opponents and I’m going to back him to chalk up a win on his first time in the big show.

Randa Markos vs Cortney Casey

Markos has alternated L-W-L-W in her last four, all going the distance. After losing her first two UFC bouts, Casey finished Cristina Stanciu in July. It’s that recent stoppage win that’s making me lean her way.

Neil Magny vs Lorenz Larkin

Larkin is a very tough dude, and I’m reluctant to bet against him, but it’s Neil Magny. He’s an auto-back fighter at the moment and is surely marching towards top 5 opposition and a title fight.

The opening Fight Pass prelims aren’t ones I want to get on, so I’m looking at:

Bet 1 – £10 returning £119.07

Neil Magny to beat Lorenz Larkin

Cortney Casey to beat Randa Markos

Chris Aliva to beat Artem Lobov

Raquel Pennington to beat Elizabeth Phillips

Bet 2 – £10 returning £142.19

Cody Garbrandt to beat Takeya Mizugaki

Mike Perry to beat Hyun Gyu Lim

Sabah Homasi to beat Tim Means

Bet 3 – £10 returning £43.62

Donald Cerone to beat Rick Story

Anthony Johnson to beat Glover Teixeira

McGregor to beat Diaz

Bet 4 – £1 returning £598.36

Neil Magny to beat Lorenz Larkin

Cortney Casey to beat Randa Markos

Chris Aliva to beat Artem Lobov

Raquel Pennington to beat Elizabeth Phillips

Cody Garbrandt to beat Takeya Mizugaki

Mike Perry to beat Hyun Gyu Lim

Sabah Homasi to beat Tim Means

Donald Cerone to beat Rick Story

Anthony Johnson to beat Glover Teixeira

McGregor to beat Diaz

Bet

Remember, by clicking on the Paddy Power banner at the top of this page, opening an account, and doing your sports betting there, you are supporting MMA Flashback, for which I am very grateful.

MMA Flash back encourages you to gamble responsibly and within your limits. If gambling stops being fun, stop. If you feel you have a problem with gambling, seek help from GAMCARE. They can be reached on 0808 8020 133 or http://www.gamcare.org.uk.

I’ll be watching all the build up to this event, plus the exclusive prelims on UFC Fight Pass. There’s also a fantastic collection of original shows and an incredible fight library you can lose yourself in for weeks. To support MMA Flashback, you can click on the banner below and sign up today. You won’t regret it.


UFC 196 – McGregor Vs Diaz

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UFC 196

5th March 2016, MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, USA

Paddy Power offer a wide range of bets on MMA events. If you would like to place a bet on UFC 196, or anything else, you would be greatly supporting MMA Flashback by clicking on the banner above and creating a Paddy Power account. Here are my thoughts on the card and how I’m betting. All odds quoted are from Paddy Power and are correct at the time of writing.

Main Card

Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz

hi-res-7f235de884f2143a752d832f4a092f1e_crop_exactAfter Conor’s historic 155lbs meeting with Rafael Dos Anjos fell apart at the last minute, he instead takes on the always game Nate Diaz at 170lbs. Although he’s spent the last three years fighting at 145lbs, he looks every ounce a Welterweight this week. Nate is always tough, but Conor is a justifiably solid 2/9 favourite to win. Mystic Mac has been a little cagey about a round prediction. He says he hopes Nate can make it to the end of the 1st round, but he’s not sure. I like Conor McGregor in rounds 1, 2 or 3 at 4/11.

Holly Holme vs Miesha Tate

image_cropUsing MMAth, Holly beat Ronda, and Ronda beat Miesha, so Holly must beat Miesha right? Actually, I like Miesha in this fight. Knocking Ronda Rousey out to win the title was impressive from Holly Holme, but she wasn’t anywhere near as convincing in her previous two UFC outings, going to a decision both times, one of them a split. Miesha has also gone to a decision in her last 4 fights, winning them all against tougher opponents. This is the opportunity of a life time for Miesha, fighting someone other than Ronda Rousey for the UFC title. I think she gets it done and most likely on points, although as neither have ever gone 5 full rounds, a straight win bet at 9/4 looks best.

Gian Villante vs Ilir Latifi

Paddy Power have Latifi as a 1/2 favourite here, but it looks like a fairly even match to me. Both fighters have a habit of winning or losing by 1st round KO, so it’ll be a ‘blink and you’ll miss it’ fight, and it’s a brave man that would put his money on this one.

TomLawler1Corey Anderson vs Tom Lawler

Anderson is favourite at 4/11 here, but ‘Filthy’ Tom Lawlor is a spoiler. 2/1 on him is an interesting one. His last fight was a win over Gian Villante, who is Anderson’s only loss, (more MMAth) and he’s on a mission to get the respect he thinks he deserves. Possible upset here.

Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko

Paddy Power have this very close with Nunes only a very narrow favourite. She looks like a killer to me and although Shevchenko got her UFC contract off to a winning start against Sarah Kaufman in December and is putting together a decent 12-1 record, I like Nunes to stop her.

Preliminary Card

Brandon Thatch vs Siyar Bahadurzada

Thatch has lost his last two, although no shame in going down to Gunnar Neslon and Benson Henderson. Bahadurzada has also dropped his last two. Thatch is installed as favourite here, but you wouldn’t want to back either.

Erick Silva vs Nordine Taleb

Considering the hype around Silva when he entered the UFC, he’s been very hit and miss. His wins have been stunning but he’s 6-5 in the Octagon. Since his arrival, Taleb ground out three decision wins before getting choked by Warley Alves last August. Silva is favourite with the bookies, and it’ll probably be a case of win early or lose late for him. Hard to get the money on though.

Vitor Miranda vs Marcelo Guimaraes

Miranda has won his last couple by TKO and Guimaraes has had two split decision wins sandwiching a KO loss. Miranda has fought successfully at Heavyweight while Guimaraes straddles Welterweight and Middleweight. Miranda to win by KO at 6/5 looks tempting.

Darren Elkins vs Chas Skelly

Amazingly this is Elkins’ 13th UFC appearance and he’s alternating between wins and losses in his last 7 fights (due a loss next if that continues). Skelly is 15-1 overall and can win by KO or submission. Skelly is a justifiable favourite, so not appealing for a bet.

Fight Pass Preliminary card

Diego Sanchez vs Jim Miller

diego_sanchez_faceThere was a time Jim Miller looked on track for a Lightweight title fight. When he met Benson Henderson in August 2011 he was 20-2, 9-1 in the UFC and on a 7 fight win streak. Unfortunately the loss to Henderson derailed him and he’s been 5-5 since. Sanchez went 6-0 in his first UFC appearances, which had him at 17-0 overall. Since then he’s been up and down in weight classes and fought some REALLY tough guys. Miller is slight favourite with the bookies, but at 11/10, I like Sanchez.

Don’t know enough about the four fighters in the opening two bouts to doubt Paddy Power’s assessment that Jason Saggo and Julian Erosa are 4/9 favourites to win.

So, where’s the value? Well at 4/11, getting on Conor McGregor to beat Nate Diaz within the first 3 rounds isn’t an exciting bet on its own, but as part of an accumulator, it’s worth going in. The upsets I like on the card are Miesha Tate to beat Holly Holme, Tom Lawler to beat Corey Anderson and Diego Sanchez to beat Jim Miller. I don’t see Nunes vs Shevchenko as close as Paddy Power do, and I like Miranda to win by KO.

The problem with including the Sanchez or Miranda fights in an accumulator when they happen so early in the night is it can spoil the whole bet if they lose, so I’m going to split into two bets:

Bet 1 – £5 returning £69.30

Diego Sanchez to beat Jim Miller @ 11/10

Vitor Miranda to beat Marcelo Guimaraes by KO @ 6/5

Tom Lawler to beat Corey Anderson @ 2/1

Bet 2 – £5 returning £39.89

Amanda Nunes to beat Valentina Shevchenko @ 4/5

Miesha Tate to beat Holly Holme @ 9/4

Conor McGregor to beat Nate Diaz in round 1, 2 or 3 @ 4/11

UFC 196 bet 1

If you would like to join in and have a bet on this event, please consider clicking on the Paddy Power banner above and opening an account with them (if you don’t already have one).  Let us know what your bets are in the comments below and good luck!

MMA Flash back encourages you to gamble responsibly and within your limits. If gambling stops being fun, stop. If you feel you have a problem with gambling, seek help from GAMCARE. They can be reached on 0808 8020 133 or http://www.gamcare.org.uk