UFC 205 – Alvarez vs McGregor – Results

November 12, Madison Square Garden, New York, New York, USA

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Jim Miller vs Thiago Alvez

Solid win ground out by Jim Miller to get me off to a winning start.

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Michael Johnson

A savage beardown handed out by Nurmagomedov. Whatever he says, I’m not sure if that answers the #1 Contender question. I think he must fight Ferguson to decide who takes on the winner of the main event.

Frankie Edgar vs Jeremy Stephens

Wow, great fight. Frankie has bottle for days and deserved the decision win.

Miesha Tate vs Raquel Pennington

Disappointing result and my first losing bet for the event. I think Miesha’s doing the right thing retiring too. A win here could have set up a third fight with Ronda, but with a loss, that looks highly unlikely, so may as well call it a day. Will be missed.

Chris Weidman vs Yoel Romero

Looked very much like Weidman was heading for a win and a shot at Bisping, when Romero delivered the good news by way of a flying knee. Looks like the Cuban might have pushed his way to the front of the queue.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

After a slow start, this turned into a hell of a fight. It went the wrong way for my bet, but it was always a long shot. Other than midway through the 4th round when Karolina rang Joanna’s bell, it was comfortable win for the champion.

Tyron Woodley vs Stephen Thompson

That was a great fight that could easily have been stopped in favour of Woodley in the 4. Bit of a cluster fuck at the end reading the scores out. Obviously 47-47-, 47-47, 48-47 is a majority draw, and the correct result, so reading it out as a split decision, was a bit of a cock up. Even though I’m not normally a fan, an immediate re-match makes some sense here.

Alvarez vs McGregor

Yeah baby. Conor delivers yet again. With a lethal combination of dynamite power and sniper accuracy another tough fighter is put away, and history is made. Unquestionably cemented himself as the best current P4P fighter in the game, and is well on the way to being the undisputed GOAT. For me, he should fight Frankie Edgar at 145 while Nurmagomedov and Ferguson fight an eliminator for fight him at 155 next. If he wins both of those, why not 170?

A loss in each of the bet sections so no cash back for me, but I don’t care. Still a great night.

Bet 1 – £10 return £0.00

McGregor to beat Alvarez – win

Thompson to beat Woodley – draw

Kowalkiewicz to beat Jedrzejczyk – lose

Bet 2 – £10 returned £0.00

Weidman to beat Romero – lose

Edgar to beat Stephens – win

Miller to beat Alvez – win

Bet 3 – £10 returned £0.00

Cerrone to beat Gastelum

Tate to beat Pennington – lose

Nurmagomedov to beat Johnson – win

Evans to beat Kennedy

Bet 4 – £3.85 (my account loose change) returning £0.00

McGregor to beat Alvarez

Thompson to beat Woodley – draw

Kowalkiewicz toi beat Jedrzejczyk – lose

Weidman to beat Romero – lose

Cerrone to beat Gastelum

Nurmagomedov to beat Johnson – win

Edgar to beat Stephens

Tate to beat Pennington – lose

Evans to beat Kennedy

Miller to beat Alvez – win

I do all my betting on Paddy Power because they offer a wide range of sports betting, including good coverage of MMA events. If you would like to place a bet on MMA or anything else, you would be greatly supporting the site by clicking on the banner below, creating a Paddy Power account and doing it there.

MMA Flash back encourages you to gamble responsibly and within your limits. If gambling stops being fun, stop. If you feel you have a problem with gambling, seek help from GAMCARE. They can be reached on 0808 8020 133 or http://www.gamcare.org.uk.

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UFC 205 – Alvarez vs McGregor – Preview

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November 12, Madison Square Garden, New York, New York, USA

Paddy Power offer a wide range of sports betting, including good coverage of MMA events. If you would like to place a bet on MMA or anything else, you would be greatly supporting the site by clicking on the banner above, creating a Paddy Power account and doing it there.

So, after YEARS of talking about it, we’re finally going to see UFC at the Garden. Plenty of great fights to look forward to and get some cash on.

Alvarez vs McGregor

I’m not for a second underestimating Alvarez. He’s a serious dude and I’d be happy to back him against most of the lightweight division, but I’m a self-confessed McGregor nut hugger, and so that’s where I’m going. Two weight champion, here we go.

Tyron Woodley vs Stephen Thompson

I feel a bit bad for Woodley. He’s being overlooked by many people, but the Wonderboy hype train has some well-deserved momentum. I’ve got Thompson to win his eighth straight fight and capture the Welterweight belt.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Joanna is obviously going into this bout a justifiable favourite, but at 10-0, and also because it’s an opportunity to back all three belts being contested to change hands, I’m going to take a punt on Karolina to get the upset.

Chris Weidman vs Yoel Romero

Got to back Weidman to win in New York, especially with Romero coming off his Juicing ban (tainted sample, my arse). Bisping gets the winner, so I’m hoping Weidman gets it done quickly and injury free so it’s sooner rather than later.

Kelvin Gastelum vs Donald Cerrone

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again; I ALWAYS bet on Cerrone to win, as the bet’s alive till the final bell.

Miesha Tate vs Raquel Pennington

Love me a bit of Miesha, so I’m straight on that bet.

Frankie Edgar vs Jeremy Stephens

ZERO chance Frankie is losing in New York.

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Michael Johnson

After winning his long-awaited return in April, Nurmagomedov is going to want to get some momentum back, especially with Tony Ferguson getting himself to the front of the queue to fight the winner of tonight’s headline fight. Johnson is a tough out for anyone, but got to back Nurmagomedov for the win.

Rashad Evans vs Tim Kennedy

I really want to back Rashad to win his middleweight debut. When he fought Teixeira in April, I backed the Brazilian and said something to the effect that Rashad hadn’t beaten a genuine 205er since 2012, but had beaten Sonnen and Hendo, who I consider large middleweights. Kennedy isn’t a bad style matchup for Rashad, and he’s been inactive for a couple of years, so what the hell, Rashad it is.

Jim Miller vs Thiago Alvez

The only other fight on the card I have an opinion on is the Fight Pass headliner. Alvez was a massive Welterweight who frequently had problems making the weight. Post-USADA and trying to make lightweight, we could see a completely different creature. I’ve been on Jim Miller in his last two outings, and I’m going to get on him again here to spoil Alvez’ return.

So I’m going for the following bets:

Bet 1 – All champs to lose – £10 returning £159.01

McGregor to beat Alvarez

Thompson to beat Woodley

Kowalkiewicz toi beat Jedrzejczyk

Bet 2 – all New Yorkers to win – £10 returning £48.46

Weidman to beat Romero

Edgar to beat Stephens

Miller to beat Alvez

Bet 3 – the rest – £10 returning £94.95

Cerrone to beat Gastelum

Tate to beat Pennington

Nurmagomedov to beat Johnson

Evans to beat Kennedy

Bet 4 – clean sweep – £3.85 (my account loose change) returning £1609.70

McGregor to beat Alvarez

Thompson to beat Woodley

Kowalkiewicz toi beat Jedrzejczyk

Weidman to beat Romero

Cerrone to beat Gastelum

Nurmagomedov to beat Johnson

Edgar to beat Stephens

Tate to beat Pennington

Evans to beat Kennedy

Miller to beat Alvez

bet

Remember, by clicking on the Paddy Power banner at the top of this page, opening an account, and doing your sports betting there, you are supporting MMA Flashback, for which I am very grateful.

MMA Flash back encourages you to gamble responsibly and within your limits. If gambling stops being fun, stop. If you feel you have a problem with gambling, seek help from GAMCARE. They can be reached on 0808 8020 133 or http://www.gamcare.org.uk.

I’ll be watching all the build up to this event, plus the exclusive prelims on UFC Fight Pass. There’s also a fantastic collection of original shows and an incredible fight library you can lose yourself in for weeks. To support MMA Flashback, you can click on the banner below and sign up today. You won’t regret it.


UFC 202 – McGregor vs Diaz 2 – Results

 August 20, 2016 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA

To watch exclusive UFC fight cards, including exclusive prelims, hours of original programming, events from many other organisations and an enormous library of fights, click on the banner above and sign up for UFC Fight Pass. By doing so, you are also supporting MMA Flashback, for which I am hugely grateful.

Nine predictions for this card with a total possible return of just over £900 from £31 staked, but there’s some very speculative picks on there so I wasn’t banking on anything.

Neil Magny vs Lorenz Larkin

Larkin looked absolutely savage, stopping Neil Magny, something Hector Lombard failed to do earlier this year. Watch out Welterweights. That’s a couple of my bets falling at the first hurdle, but it’s a long night.

Randa Markos vs Cortney Casey

After a shaky start, Casey had to fight her way out of a bad position and in the last seconds of the 1st round, found an armbar finish. Good effort.

Artem Lobov vs Chris Avila

Lobov finally adds a UFC win to his record, completely out-performing Avila, and chalks one up in the Dublin vs Stockton battle too. Still a little unconvincing from the Russian Hammer, as Avila offered little offensively and still saw the final bell.

Raquel Pennington vs Elizabeth Phillips

A hard fought victory for Pennington. It wasn’t pretty, but sometimes they just have to be ground out.

Cody Garbrandt vs Takeya Mizugaki

The fight opened up with Joe Rogan rabbiting on about how being such a big favourite in the fight could be a disadvantage to Garbrandt, causing him to take Mizugaki lightly. Cody soon shut that up with an early KO. As expected, with a bit of prompting from Rogan, Garbrandt took the opportunity to promise Dominick Cruz a broken jaw at the earliest opportunity.

Tim Means vs Sabah Homasi

Ah well, I did say the upset bets were just for fun. Means was an entirely different class to Homasi and by half way through the 1st round it was looking a case of not if, but when he’d get the finish.

Hyun Gyu Lim vs Mike Perry

Upset number two does come in, with Mike Perry beating the snot out of Hyun Gyu Lim. Will certainly be interested in his next outing.

Rick Story vs Donald Cerrone

COWBOY!! Story gave a decent account of himself in a 1st round that Cerrone probably won, but round 2 was all Cowboy and he bagged the show reel combination stoppage. I hope UFC give him the 155lbs title match against Alverez he’s asking for. If they do, my money will be straight on him.

Anthony Johnson vs Glover Teixeira

Rumble executed Glover in under a minute. Holy shit, that guy is a killer. It’s a good job he’s such a nice guy, because if he decided to go on a rampage, I’m not sure there’s much we could collectively do to stop him. Get ready DC, Rumble is coming for a second crack at your belt.

McGregor vs Diaz

What an incredible fight?! One and a half rounds in, it was looking like it might be a clinical and dominant win for Conor, but never count Nate Diaz out, who turned it into a war. I had it 10-8, 10-10, 9-10, 10-9, 9-10 so 48-47 overall. Two judges had the same score as me and another gave it a draw. Fantastic scrap, and for gods’ sake Conor, make that the last bout at 170lbs. Back to 145lbs to defend/unify that belt. There are other 155lbs I’d like to see both guys fight before they meet again, but I’m sure we’ll see the rubber match at some point.

So, 6/9 right a very small profit for the card:

Bet 1 – £10 returning £0.00

Neil Magny to beat Lorenz Larkin – lose

Cortney Casey to beat Randa Markos – win

Chris Aliva to beat Artem Lobov – lose

Raquel Pennington to beat Elizabeth Phillips – win

Bet 2 – £10 returning £0.00

Cody Garbrandt to beat Takeya Mizugaki – win

Sabah Homasi to beat Tim Means – lose

Mike Perry to beat Hyun Gyu Lim – win

Bet 3 – £10 returned £43.62

Donald Cerone to beat Rick Story – win

Anthony Johnson to beat Glover Teixeira – win

McGregor to beat Diaz – win

Bet 4 – £1 returning £0.00

Neil Magny to beat Lorenz Larkin – lose

Cortney Casey to beat Randa Markos – win

Chris Aliva to beat Artem Lobov – lose

Raquel Pennington to beat Elizabeth Phillips – win

Cody Garbrandt to beat Takeya Mizugaki – win

Sabah Homasi to beat Tim Means – lose

Mike Perry to beat Hyun Gyu Lim – win

Donald Cerone to beat Rick Story – win

Anthony Johnson to beat Glover Teixeira – win

McGregor to beat Diaz – win

Bet settled

I do all my betting on Paddy Power because they offer a wide range of sports betting, including good coverage of MMA events. If you would like to place a bet on MMA or anything else, you would be greatly supporting the site by clicking on the banner below, creating a Paddy Power account and doing it there.

MMA Flash back encourages you to gamble responsibly and within your limits. If gambling stops being fun, stop. If you feel you have a problem with gambling, seek help from GAMCARE. They can be reached on 0808 8020 133 or http://www.gamcare.org.uk.

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UFC 202 – Diaz vs McGregor 2 – Preview

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August 20, 2016 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA

Paddy Power offer a wide range of sports betting, including good coverage of MMA events. If you would like to place a bet on MMA or anything else, you would be greatly supporting the site by clicking on the banner above, creating a Paddy Power account and doing it there.

It was UFC 196 – McGregor vs Diaz that started this year’s betting campaign for me. I got more right than wrong on the night, but made no profit as there was a loser in each accumulator. That included the main event where I put my money on Conor. So, let’s have a look at UFC 202 and see where my money’s going.

McGregor vs Diaz

I’m an unapologetic fan of McGregor, both as a fighter and as a personality. I would rather he was defending his Featherweight title, and if he insists on super fights at other weights, I’d prefer him to be looking at Lightweight first. But I had my money on him last time, and I am happy to get it on him again now. Just got to keep it standing.

Anthony Johnson vs Glover Teixeira

With the exception of his failed title attempt against Daniel Cormier last May, Rumble has been a killer since moving up to Light Heavyweight. Glover Teixeira was also looking lethal when he made short work of Rashad Evans in April. That said, a hot Rumble Johnson is a different prospect to a retirement-bound Rashad coming back after a long layoff. Rumble looks favourite and I’m happy to get on him.

Rick Story vs Donald Cerone

Story looked pretty good in his return in May against Tarec Saffiedine after a long break. But I always bet on Cowboy, because the bet is usually live till the final bell. Cerone only has two losses in over three years, both to recently dethroned champ; RDA, and I don’t see Story derailing the current run.

Hyun Gyu Lim vs Mike Perry
Tim Means vs Sabah Homasi

I tend to duck fights where late replacements are involved, especially when they are promotional new comers. However, just for fun, I’m going to take a punt on Perry and Homasi to both cause upsets, just because of the juicy odds. Perry is unbeaten and Homasi has won three times already this year, so it’s not impossible.

Cody Garbrandt vs Takeya Mizugaki

Garbrandt is lining himself up for a crack at Dominick Cruz and an impressive win over Mizugaki surely gets that title shot signed. He looked fantastic when he put Thomas Almeida away in May and this fight feels like an opportunity to get the mic in his hand to call out the champ.

Raquel Pennington vs Elizabeth Phillips

I reluctantly bet against Pennington in April when I thought she would get beaten by Bethe Correia and that proved to be a mistake. I like her to beat Phillips here.

Artem Lobov vs Chris Avila

Conor’s buddy has yet to chalk up a win in the UFC and although Avila is another promotional debutant, this might be another backable newbie. He’s finished his last three opponents and I’m going to back him to chalk up a win on his first time in the big show.

Randa Markos vs Cortney Casey

Markos has alternated L-W-L-W in her last four, all going the distance. After losing her first two UFC bouts, Casey finished Cristina Stanciu in July. It’s that recent stoppage win that’s making me lean her way.

Neil Magny vs Lorenz Larkin

Larkin is a very tough dude, and I’m reluctant to bet against him, but it’s Neil Magny. He’s an auto-back fighter at the moment and is surely marching towards top 5 opposition and a title fight.

The opening Fight Pass prelims aren’t ones I want to get on, so I’m looking at:

Bet 1 – £10 returning £119.07

Neil Magny to beat Lorenz Larkin

Cortney Casey to beat Randa Markos

Chris Aliva to beat Artem Lobov

Raquel Pennington to beat Elizabeth Phillips

Bet 2 – £10 returning £142.19

Cody Garbrandt to beat Takeya Mizugaki

Mike Perry to beat Hyun Gyu Lim

Sabah Homasi to beat Tim Means

Bet 3 – £10 returning £43.62

Donald Cerone to beat Rick Story

Anthony Johnson to beat Glover Teixeira

McGregor to beat Diaz

Bet 4 – £1 returning £598.36

Neil Magny to beat Lorenz Larkin

Cortney Casey to beat Randa Markos

Chris Aliva to beat Artem Lobov

Raquel Pennington to beat Elizabeth Phillips

Cody Garbrandt to beat Takeya Mizugaki

Mike Perry to beat Hyun Gyu Lim

Sabah Homasi to beat Tim Means

Donald Cerone to beat Rick Story

Anthony Johnson to beat Glover Teixeira

McGregor to beat Diaz

Bet

Remember, by clicking on the Paddy Power banner at the top of this page, opening an account, and doing your sports betting there, you are supporting MMA Flashback, for which I am very grateful.

MMA Flash back encourages you to gamble responsibly and within your limits. If gambling stops being fun, stop. If you feel you have a problem with gambling, seek help from GAMCARE. They can be reached on 0808 8020 133 or http://www.gamcare.org.uk.

I’ll be watching all the build up to this event, plus the exclusive prelims on UFC Fight Pass. There’s also a fantastic collection of original shows and an incredible fight library you can lose yourself in for weeks. To support MMA Flashback, you can click on the banner below and sign up today. You won’t regret it.


UFC 196 – McGrecor vs Diaz – Results

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5th March 2016, MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, USA

Paddy Power offer a wide range of bets on MMA events. If you would like to place a bet on MMA events, or anything else, you would be greatly supporting MMA Flashback by clicking on the banner above and creating a Paddy Power account.

Fight Pass Preliminary card

Julian Erosa vs Teruto Ishihara

Ishihara goes for a kick off the glove touch. Douche! Ishihara’s striking is faster and heavier and he rings Erosa’s bell early. Ishihara comfortably wins the first round. Early in the second, Erosa charges in and is met with a hard left hook that discombobulates Erosa. Ishihara goes in for the kill and wins by KO.

Jason Saggo vs Justin Salas

The early striking is fairly even, but when Saggo tries a heel kick, Salas ducks under for an easy takedown. Saggo reverses Salas and dominates him, taking his back and smashing him. Very impressive.

Diego Sanchez vs Jim Miller

I need a Sanchez win to get my bets off to a winning start. Sanchez sprints across the cage to get at Miller, but there’s no prolonged early storm. Sanchez takes Miller down half way through the first round and although not much damage is done, it probably wins him the round. Miller is getting the edge in the early round 2 striking, but again, Sanchez gets the takedown. This time though, he’s not able to keep Miller down. Towards the end of the round, Miller gets a standing front choke and throws some heavy knees, securing the round for him. Very difficult to pick a winner from the final round, but the judges go Sanchez’ way, which gets me off and running with the bet.

Preliminary Card

Darren Elkins vs Chas Skelly

Skelly went into this fight solid bookies’ favourite despite being the lower ranked fighter. Standing, Skelly’s early striking is much more accurate and Elkins barely survives some excellent heel hook attempts on the ground. Skelly edges the first round on my card. Elkins starts round 2 with a successful take down that also almost relieves Skelly of his shorts. Elkins lands some heavy G’n’P and out-wrestles Skelly to win the round. I have it all square going into the last round but Joe Rogan and also Skelly’s corner think he’s two rounds in the hole and needs a finish. If you’re playing Mike Goldberg cliché bingo, you get your first point for “embracing the grind.” The standing exchanges are more even now, but Elkins is stronger on the ground. He can’t quite get the finish, but easily does enough to secure the round. 29-28 Elkins for me. No one else gave Skelly the first round, and Elkins even got a 10-8 for the last round. Right winner, but scores seemed a little generous to me.

Vitor Miranda vs Marcelo Guimaraes

Looking for a Miranda KO win for the bet here. Guimaraes works hard to get the fight to the ground, but Miranda’s takedown defence is pretty good and he makes Guimaraes pay for the attempts. Difficult round to score as Miranda did spend most of it with his back pressed against the cage, but a late striking exchange maybe swings it his way. Round 2 starts the same way, with Miranda pressed against the cage and, as he did in round 1, he drops a series of heavy elbows to the side of Guimaraes skull. As they separate, Miranda sees Guimaraes isn’t very steady on his feet, so he goes in for the kill. TKO at 1:09 of round 2. 2 up for the first bet.

Erick Silva vs Nordine Taleb

After a couple of minutes sizing each other up, there’s a scare for Taleb as he appears to turn his left ankle. He’s a bit hobbled briefly, but he walks it off. There’s an exchange that puts Silva on his back, and as they get back to their feet, Taleb nods and smiles at Silva. Silva offers his left fist forward for a glove touch and switches it into a left hook. Douche! Taleb is the more accurate fighter and wins the round. Early in the second, Taleb catches a Silva front kick and fires a solid straight right hand down the pipe and knocks Silva out cold. Beautiful bit of poetic justice there.

Brandon Thatch vs Siyar Bahadurzada

The first half of round 1 is Thatch being lighter on his feet and more accurate with his striking. It briefly turns into a bit of a brawl and while that’s probably not Thatch’s game plan, he’s holding his own. Thatch takes Bahadurzada down late but loses position. Should still be a Thatch round on the cards. After getting stung early in the second, Bahadurzada takes the fight to the ground. John McCarthy stands them up despite Bahadurzada being very active from the top. After a brief exchange on the feet, Bahadurzada takes it back down to the canvas and drops some heavy G‘n’P. Clear Bahadurzada round. Thatch is dropped by a heavy right hand early and Bahadurzada goes back to dominating on the ground. McCarthy is quick with the stand up again, but Bahadurzada takes it straight back down. Bahadurzada is already heading for a comfortable decision win, when he passes Thatch’s guard and gets a tap from an arm triangle. Solid performance.

Main Card

Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko

The main card (and the second bet) gets underway with two tough Bantamweight ladies. It’s a cagey start, with Nunes landing more strikes and punctuating the round with a take down. Early in the second they are back to the ground and Nunes is in control. The sight of some claret spurs her on and Shevchenko takes a bit of a beating. Nunes almost finishes with a choke but loses position right on the buzzer. Two rounds in the bag for Nunes. A takedown goes wrong at the start of the third and Nunes ends up on the bottom. She shows her experience and makes her way back up with minimal damage taken. Shevchenko comes alive and dominates the round with her striking, but it’s too little too late and Amanda Nunes is a deserved winner by decision, which is good for bet 2.

Corey Anderson vs Tom Lawler

In the first meaningful exchange, Lawlor wobbles Anderson. He recovers, but Lawlor controls distance and wins the round for me. Anderson comes out a bit more aggressively in the second, but Lawlor has the heavier hands and every exchange slows Anderson down a little. It’s a closer round, but Lawlor edges it on my card. Anderson takes Lawlor down a third of the way into the final round and controls from the top. McCarthy stands them up while Anderson is still working. Not sure what Big John has against grappling tonight. Anderson looks the brighter in the final minute, and clearly wins the round. I have it two rounds to one in favour of Lawlor, but it’s a close one. Surprisingly two of the judges gave all three rounds to Corey Anderson. No way he won the first for me, but as the second could have gone either way, it’s not a controversial result overall. Kills the first bet though.

Gian Villante vs Ilir Latifi

Latifi does his best to neutralise Villante’s kicking with his grappling. It’s a difficult first round to score, but Villante nicks it for me. Latifi catches a kick early in the second round, and as Villante tries to pull his leg out, he gets his back taken and is suplexed. They’re back up fairly quickly and the striking for the rest of the round is pretty even. Latifi finishes the round with a big takedown which maybe swings the round his way. All to fight for in the final round, and Latifi is looking for the finishing shot more than Villante, but with limited success. Latifi closes the round with a takedown which probably banks him the round. All the judges gave all three rounds to Latifi. Pretty surprising that this went the distance.

Holly Holme vs Miesha Tate

This is a very tight fight and it’s hard to split them in rounds 1 and 3. Miesha dominates round 2, possibly with a 10-8 and Holly maybe nicks the 4th. Holly is starting to get the edge in the striking in the final round, but with two minutes remaining Miesha jumps on Holly, takes her back and chokes her unconscious. Well done Miesha. NEW champion!! That’s 2 for 2 in the second bet.

Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz

Conor gets the better of the early striking exchanges, and opens Nate’s right eyebrow up. Comfortable first round in the bank for Conor. Round 2 starts much the same, and by a couple of minutes in Nate is a bloody mess. Then, against the run of play, Nate clips Conor with a left and it evens the fight right up. Not very steady on his feet, Conor goes for a takedown and almost gets caught in a guillotine. There’s a scramble, Nate mounts and drops some bombs. Conor rolls to his front and Nate snatches a rear-naked choke. Conor has no choice but to tap and the hype train is (temporarily) derailed, as is my bet. What a scrap?!

Conor is classy in defeat, and Nate doesn’t rub his face in it. This should hopefully calm the noise around Conor down a little bit and he can get refocused on one division at a time, instead of ruling the entire sport.

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Bet Results
Bet 1 – £5 returning £69.30

Diego Sanchez to beat Jim Miller @ 11/10 – WIN

Vitor Miranda to beat Marcelo Guimaraes by KO @ 6/5 – WIN

Tom Lawler to beat Corey Anderson @ 2/1 – LOSE

Bet 2 – £5 returning £39.89

Amanda Nunes to beat Valentina Shevchenko @ 4/5 – WIN

Miesha Tate to beat Holly Holme @ 9/4 – WIN

Conor McGregor to beat Nate Diaz in round 1, 2 or 3 @ 4/11 – LOSE

I think I was unlucky with the first bet.  For me, Lawlor did enough to win the fight, but for two judges to give all three rounds to Corey Anderson is a bit gutting, having picked the previous two.

No complaints with the second bet. Having picked Nunes and Miesha to win, I was confident going into the main event. Conor just got clipped. It happens, but I’m happy with my selection.

Eyes are on UFC Fight Night Hunt v Mir next. Breakdown and predictions to follow.

UFC 196 – McGregor Vs Diaz

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UFC 196

5th March 2016, MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, USA

Paddy Power offer a wide range of bets on MMA events. If you would like to place a bet on UFC 196, or anything else, you would be greatly supporting MMA Flashback by clicking on the banner above and creating a Paddy Power account. Here are my thoughts on the card and how I’m betting. All odds quoted are from Paddy Power and are correct at the time of writing.

Main Card

Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz

hi-res-7f235de884f2143a752d832f4a092f1e_crop_exactAfter Conor’s historic 155lbs meeting with Rafael Dos Anjos fell apart at the last minute, he instead takes on the always game Nate Diaz at 170lbs. Although he’s spent the last three years fighting at 145lbs, he looks every ounce a Welterweight this week. Nate is always tough, but Conor is a justifiably solid 2/9 favourite to win. Mystic Mac has been a little cagey about a round prediction. He says he hopes Nate can make it to the end of the 1st round, but he’s not sure. I like Conor McGregor in rounds 1, 2 or 3 at 4/11.

Holly Holme vs Miesha Tate

image_cropUsing MMAth, Holly beat Ronda, and Ronda beat Miesha, so Holly must beat Miesha right? Actually, I like Miesha in this fight. Knocking Ronda Rousey out to win the title was impressive from Holly Holme, but she wasn’t anywhere near as convincing in her previous two UFC outings, going to a decision both times, one of them a split. Miesha has also gone to a decision in her last 4 fights, winning them all against tougher opponents. This is the opportunity of a life time for Miesha, fighting someone other than Ronda Rousey for the UFC title. I think she gets it done and most likely on points, although as neither have ever gone 5 full rounds, a straight win bet at 9/4 looks best.

Gian Villante vs Ilir Latifi

Paddy Power have Latifi as a 1/2 favourite here, but it looks like a fairly even match to me. Both fighters have a habit of winning or losing by 1st round KO, so it’ll be a ‘blink and you’ll miss it’ fight, and it’s a brave man that would put his money on this one.

TomLawler1Corey Anderson vs Tom Lawler

Anderson is favourite at 4/11 here, but ‘Filthy’ Tom Lawlor is a spoiler. 2/1 on him is an interesting one. His last fight was a win over Gian Villante, who is Anderson’s only loss, (more MMAth) and he’s on a mission to get the respect he thinks he deserves. Possible upset here.

Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko

Paddy Power have this very close with Nunes only a very narrow favourite. She looks like a killer to me and although Shevchenko got her UFC contract off to a winning start against Sarah Kaufman in December and is putting together a decent 12-1 record, I like Nunes to stop her.

Preliminary Card

Brandon Thatch vs Siyar Bahadurzada

Thatch has lost his last two, although no shame in going down to Gunnar Neslon and Benson Henderson. Bahadurzada has also dropped his last two. Thatch is installed as favourite here, but you wouldn’t want to back either.

Erick Silva vs Nordine Taleb

Considering the hype around Silva when he entered the UFC, he’s been very hit and miss. His wins have been stunning but he’s 6-5 in the Octagon. Since his arrival, Taleb ground out three decision wins before getting choked by Warley Alves last August. Silva is favourite with the bookies, and it’ll probably be a case of win early or lose late for him. Hard to get the money on though.

Vitor Miranda vs Marcelo Guimaraes

Miranda has won his last couple by TKO and Guimaraes has had two split decision wins sandwiching a KO loss. Miranda has fought successfully at Heavyweight while Guimaraes straddles Welterweight and Middleweight. Miranda to win by KO at 6/5 looks tempting.

Darren Elkins vs Chas Skelly

Amazingly this is Elkins’ 13th UFC appearance and he’s alternating between wins and losses in his last 7 fights (due a loss next if that continues). Skelly is 15-1 overall and can win by KO or submission. Skelly is a justifiable favourite, so not appealing for a bet.

Fight Pass Preliminary card

Diego Sanchez vs Jim Miller

diego_sanchez_faceThere was a time Jim Miller looked on track for a Lightweight title fight. When he met Benson Henderson in August 2011 he was 20-2, 9-1 in the UFC and on a 7 fight win streak. Unfortunately the loss to Henderson derailed him and he’s been 5-5 since. Sanchez went 6-0 in his first UFC appearances, which had him at 17-0 overall. Since then he’s been up and down in weight classes and fought some REALLY tough guys. Miller is slight favourite with the bookies, but at 11/10, I like Sanchez.

Don’t know enough about the four fighters in the opening two bouts to doubt Paddy Power’s assessment that Jason Saggo and Julian Erosa are 4/9 favourites to win.

So, where’s the value? Well at 4/11, getting on Conor McGregor to beat Nate Diaz within the first 3 rounds isn’t an exciting bet on its own, but as part of an accumulator, it’s worth going in. The upsets I like on the card are Miesha Tate to beat Holly Holme, Tom Lawler to beat Corey Anderson and Diego Sanchez to beat Jim Miller. I don’t see Nunes vs Shevchenko as close as Paddy Power do, and I like Miranda to win by KO.

The problem with including the Sanchez or Miranda fights in an accumulator when they happen so early in the night is it can spoil the whole bet if they lose, so I’m going to split into two bets:

Bet 1 – £5 returning £69.30

Diego Sanchez to beat Jim Miller @ 11/10

Vitor Miranda to beat Marcelo Guimaraes by KO @ 6/5

Tom Lawler to beat Corey Anderson @ 2/1

Bet 2 – £5 returning £39.89

Amanda Nunes to beat Valentina Shevchenko @ 4/5

Miesha Tate to beat Holly Holme @ 9/4

Conor McGregor to beat Nate Diaz in round 1, 2 or 3 @ 4/11

UFC 196 bet 1

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