Ultimate Fight Night – MacDonald vs Thompson – Preview


June 18, 2016 at TD Place Arena, Ottawa, Canada

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I got another one in the win column at the last event, backing Michael Bisping to beat Luke Rockhold. I didn’t land my other seven fight accumulator, so as it stands, I’m still tantalisingly close to the 1000% ROI point for the year’s betting. Hopefully I can reach that milestone this weekend.

Rory MacDonald vs Steven Thompson

There’s a lot of hype building around Stephen ‘Wonder Boy’ Thompson, and rightly so. The only blemish on his record is a decision loss to Matt Brown in his second UFC fight, way back in 2012, and that’s no blemish at all really. In his last two outings he put Jake Ellenberger and Johny Hendricks away. The kid is a killer. With all that said, I’m backing Rory MacDonald to win this fight. His only losses have been to Carlos Condit, again in his second UFC fight in 2011, plus two losses in incredible wars with Robbie Lawler. MacDonald has struggled to reach terms with the UFC to renew his contract and has talked about testing the free agency market after this fight. With that in mind, plus the fight being in Canada, I think we’re going to see MacDonald at the top of his game, and that might be enough to derail the Thompson hype train.

Donald Cerrone vs Patrick Cote

I love having money on Cowboy because the bet is live till the final bell. Also, I like him as a Welterweight. Two losses to Rafael Dos Anjos break up what would otherwise have been a 10 fight winning streak. Cote will give Cowboy a war on the feet, and it could be a real barn-burner, but if it gets a bit too hot standing, Cowboy has a big advantage on the ground which could be the difference. Easy to back Cerrone here.

Steve Bosse vs Sean O’Connell

I was on Steve Bosse when he beat James Te Huna in Brisbaine in March. Although there’s no particularly strong reason to back either fighter in this bout, O’Connell is a very likable chap, having fun and giving gifts at weigh ins and stare downs. I’m going to get on him for the fun of it, partly because the next two fights I’m backing solid bookies’ favourites.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Thibault Gouti

On Neutral ground, this could be a chance to back an upset, but with home-field advantage, and with Gouti coming off a loss, I think it just about makes Aubin-Mercier backable.

Valerie Letourneau vs Joanne Calderwood

I’ve been trying to find justification to back Jo Calderwood here. She’s got heart for days and she’s extremely likable. However, Letourneau took Joanna Jedrzejcyyk the distance back in November, and I think she represents a big jump up in class for Calderwood to deal with. Again, on neutral ground or even a UK card, I might bet with my heart and back Calderwood, but in Canada, I have to be sensible and back Letourneau.

I’ve got no strong feelings about the prelims, but have decided to have an interest bet on a few of them. I’ve got a free bet from Paddy Power to roll into it, so why not. These are shameless punt-bets on little or no solid information:

Jason Saggo vs Leandro Silva

Saggo due to home advantage.

Misha Cirkunov vs Ion Cutelba

Cirkunov as it’s Cutelba’s UFC debut.

Krzystof Jokto vsTamden McCrory

Jokto as he has the longer active win streak.

Joe Soto vs Chris Beal

This a 3 fight losing streak vs a 2 fight losing streak. No one ever got rich betting on prospects like that, so not getting involved with this one.

The Fight Pass prelims is some real finger in the air stuff, so I think we’ll call it quits there.

So the bets will be:

Bet 1 – £10 returning £32.31

Rory MacDonald vs Steven Thompson

Donald Cerrone vs Patrick Cote

Bet 2 – £10 returning £45.69

Sean O’Connell to beat Steve Bosse

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Thibault Gouti

Valerie Letourneau vs Joanne Calderwood

Bet 3 – £10 (including £5 free bet) returning £58.25

Jason Saggo to beat Leandro Silva

Misha Cirkunov to beat Ion Cutelba

Krzystof Jokto to beat Tamden McCrory

bet 1 (1)

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I’ll be watching all the build up to this event, plus the exclusive prelims on UFC Fight Pass. There’s also a fantastic collection of original shows and an incredible fight library you can lose yourself in for weeks. To support MMA Flashback, you can click on the banner below and sign up today. You won’t regret it.


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