UFC 198 Werdum vs Miocic – Preview

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May 14, 2016, Arena da Baixada in Curitiba, Brazil

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UFC 198 is an absolute cracker, and as I started to look up and down the card for who to get my money on, it became obvious which way I was going to go. Simply, this Saturday, I’m flying the Brazilian flag all night. It’s going to mean betting against some fighters I really like and would normally bet on, and a few of the Brazilian picks are shakier than others, but it’s the only way to go.

Main Card

I really like Stipe, and in normal circumstances, I’d be happy to get my money on him, but against Werdum in Brazil, backing the champ is a no brainer.

The co-main event is the only Brazil vs Brazil action, but Jacare is easy to get on against Vitor here. Should be a great fight, but Jacare all day.

I was going to back the Spider Goat to chalk up his first win since Stephan Bonner in 2012 (taking into account the Diaz win being overturned to a NC), but the damn injury bug bit again and he’s out. Get well soon Anderson.

Cyborg is surely the biggest favourite ever in a UFC fight, and I’m reluctant to put it in on principle. 1/14??

The most worrying bet on the main card is Shogun vs Corey Anderson. If this fight was happening anywhere else in the world, I’d be on Corey Anderson in a flash, but in Brazil, I think Shogun will find a way to win.

Prelims

The four Brazilians on this section of the card are all clear favourites. It breaks my heart to bet against Matt Brown, who’s one of my favourite fighters, but Damian Maia in Brazil must take this.

Fight Pass Prelims

Again, it’s the featured bout that worries me most of the opening three fights. The smart money should probably be on Pat Cummins, but Little Nog fighting in Brazil must be backed.

So the only question is, how to split them up to get maximum enjoyment from the card? My first thought was to just have three accumulators on the separate sections of the card, but if Shogun loses, my main card is dead early. Instead, I decided to put the two dicey bets together, the first and last three together, all the mid-card favourites, including the Cyborg fight ending in 1.5 rounds or under, and then for the hell of it, a big 10 fight accumulator, leaving out Little Nog, Shogun and Anderson Silva (if he gets sparked out to kill a massive bet like that, I’d be devastated).

Bet 1 – £5 returning £164.06

Werdum to beat Miocic

Souza to beat Belfort

Justino to beat Smith

Maia to beat Brown

Alves to beat Barerena

Santos to beat Marquardt

Lineker to beat Font

Trinaldo to beat Medeiros

Moraes to beat Chagas

Moicano to beat Tukhugov

Bet 2 – £5 returning £20.93

Maia to beat Brown

Alves to beat Barerena

Santos to beat Marquardt

Lineker to beat Font

Justino to beat Smith in under 1.5 rounds

Bet 3 – £5 returning £24.64

Trinaldo to beat Medeiros

Moraes to beat Chagas

Moicano to beat Tukhugov

Bet 4 – £5 returning £10.77 (rubbish having lost a fight from the treble)

Silva to beat Hall

Souza to beat Belfort

Werdum to beat Miocic

Bet 5 – £5 returning £36.09

Rua to beat Anderson

Nogueira to beat Cummins

bet 1

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