May 8, 2016 at Ahoy Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
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Alistair Overeem vs Andre Arlovski
Until he ran into Stipe Miocic at UFC 195, Andre Arlovski’s comeback winning streak had been very impressive. No shame in getting stopped by Miocic either, and I’m sure Andre hasn’t finished making an impact on the heavyweight division. That said, Overeem is putting a decent run of his own together, and I can’t see any way he loses his first fight in the Netherlands since 2009. Overeem is easy to back here.
Antonio Silva vs Stefan Struve
Big Foot is never in a dull fight, but he’s only tasted victory once in the last three years. Struve has really struggled over the last couple of years, with both a parade of extremely tough opponents, and trouble with a heart condition. He may not be the same fighter that put Stipe Miocic away in 2012, but fighting in front of Dutch fans against Big Foot will be huge for him. Happy to get on Sky Scraper to win.
Albert Tumenov vs Gunnar Nelson
Tumenov has put a very impressive 17-2 record together, including 11 KO/TKO finishes. He’s also never been stopped. However, he’s never faced a grappler of Gunnar Nelson’s calibre before and although he’s lost two of his last three, including a fascinating ground battle with Damien Maia, if Gunnar can get his hands on Tumenov, I fancy he could put the first submission loss on that record.
Germaine De Randamie vs Anna Elmose
These aren’t two fighters I know much about if I’m honest, so I would normally stay away from it with my money, but there are several factors that make De Randamie backable. She’s got more experience against higher level opposition, she’s training with champions at AKA and finally, as she’s Dutch she’ll have the crowd behind her. I may have a punt on her.
Nikita Krylov vs Francimar Barroso
With 19-4 and 18-4 records respectively, these two are hard to split. Brazilian Barroso is 3-1 since joining the UFC and has gone the distance in all four, although he does have plenty of finishes earlier record. Win or lose, Krylov rarely gets out of the first round and has both TKO and submission finishes since joining the big show. I’m leaning towards Krylov for another punt bet.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Heather Jo Clark
At 8-0, Kowalkiewicz has already taken out a TUF 20 competitor in Randa Markos. She’ll get a chance to add another in Clark and go 9-0 here.
When I pick my bets, I look at records, form, style match ups, and any other potential influencing factor, then I make my decision, but I DON’T look at the bookies odds until I’ve got my choices made. This time, with the exception of Gunnar Nelson, I’ve picked five favourites to win, so I’m going to be brave and go for a single six fight accumulator on the main card.
As the event is showing at a very Europe-friendly time, I’m also going to have a real finger in the air hunch bet accumulator on the under card fights (excluding the couple that have VERY late replacements), so I’ve got some skin in the game throughout. For gods’ sake don’t follow me into this one, at least not if you value your money.
Bet 1 – £5 returning £79.10
Alistair Overeem to beat Andre Arlovski
Stefan Struve to beat Antonio Silva
Gunnar Nelson to beat Albert Tumenov
Germaine De Randamie to beat Anna Elmose
Nikita Krylov to beat Francimar Barroso
Karolina Kowalkiewicz to beat Heather Jo Clark
Bet 2 – £5 returning £26.83
Chris Wade to beat Rustam Khabilov
Magnus Cedenbald to beat Garreth McLellan
Yan Cabral to beat Reza Madadi
Bet 3 – £5 returning £31.50
Neil Seery to beat Kyoji Horiguchi
Leon Edwards to beat Dominic Waters
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